Which Voter Segment do you belong to?

With the elections fever heating up all around the world, our little red dot is redder than ever about the upcoming elections.

Though no one knows when the election will be held, there has been all sorts of speculations, mainly fueled by massive public appearances by politicians, old and new, left and right,  all over the island in the past two weekends.

Some say the election will be held in July 2010, i.e. before National Day and YOG, while others say it will be held after YOG during the 1-week school holiday in Sep 2010.

Regardless of when, everyone is also wondering about the election outcome. Some say the current governing party will lose more seats. Some say more seats but still same percentage of seats held by opposition. Theories abound.

Let's take a look at the Singaporean Voters.

Here we have a rough depiction of the Singaporean Voters. While it's easy to get the total figure for Singapore Residents (which includes Singapore Citizens + Permanent Residents), it's not so easy to get the specific figure for Singapore Citizens. For ease of discussion, let's assume the total no. of Singapore Citizens = 3mil, and they are all inside the pointed drum below, and divided by housing types.

Amongst these 3mil citizens, let's assume there is a 60-40 split. 60% want status quo and/or don't give a damn about how our country is governed. 40% want change.

But not all 3mil citizens will get to vote. Firstly, the eligible voters are probably around 70% of the 3mil. In addition, if only half the seats are contested during the elections, the Actual Voters are only about 30% of all Singaporeans.

So assuming this 30% of Actual Voters are spread evenly across the population, the voting result should not deviate from the 60-40 split very much.

But in reality, "evenly distributed" usually does not exist. Voters from Area X may vote for Party A more than Voters from Area Y does for Party A. In addition, voters can and are always swayed by what the politicians have to offer. Of course, politicians are aware that not all voters are the same. Hence, the voters are segmented, i.e. into groups - to divide and conquer, as follows:

Elites - These vote to preserve their own influence in society and to maintain/enhance their own profits. Not very different from most people, except that they do get to realise what they want in a significant manner.

Smarts Chasers - These generally vote based on who they think are smart enough to lead the country. And 'smart enough' is usually based on educational credentials from ivy leagues/Oxbridge, and/or have achieved extraordinary careers, e.g. exceptionally skilled in his trade, made a lot of money etc. A minority of these voters possess these credentials/achievements, and so are choosing those similar to themselves or better as their leaders. The remaining majority of voters in this category simply yearns to be 'successful' like their ideal leaders.

Hence, the opposition has placed quite a few of such 'smarts' candidates to the foreground in the recent months. In a certification-obsessed society like ours, this is a solid move to attract the votes of Smarts Chasers.

Some observers ponder about the irony of the opposition party showing off their Smarts candidates, while the current governing party attempts to associate itself with people of lesser smarts in the entertainment industry. This is not a reckless move by the latter, mind you. In fact, it can be explained in a rational manner.
 
Visual Chasers - These vote based on what they see of the candidates. These visuals may include those gathered in the flesh and/or through the mainstream media + online. These voters like to see 'good form', e.g. candidates who are good-looking and/or pursuing 'meaningful' activities such as hanging out with the voters, seen to be saying the right things, baby-hugging etc. These visuals translate into 'having heart' and/or 'being good' in the eyes of this group of voters. They take 'seeing is believing' very literally.

Because a lot of younger voters fall within the Visual Chaser group, this has lead to the increase in the less 'smarts' but more 'looker' type of candidates in the recent years. It's probably prudent for the opposition party to start filling their arsenal with some of such candidates.

It is possible for a voter to be a combination of 'Smarts Chaser' and 'Visual Chaser'. With a majority of candidates being male, such combination voters are possibly females who transfer their notion of the ideal partner onto their ideal leader candidate (i.e. as a provider of a better life).

Dislocated - This group of people is dislocated from society as they are usually jobless and do not have the means to maintain relevance. This group is usually played up by all factions to tug at heartstrings. But nobody really knows what's going through their minds.

And of course, in the past few elections, there are about 2%-3% of spoilt votes. The impact of this group will only become significant when the contest cuts very close, i.e. in an almost 50-50 situation.

(Some will argue that this segmentation model is too simple. But really, is there a need to create more segments for an exercise like this? Singaporeans are rather homogeneous when it comes to macro issues like this.)


So, if you are a party with a lot of resources (including power, people, money etc), you are likely to assess the profile of voters of each contested area is a way similar to the above, then adjust the mix of your team accordingly.

In other words, if you, as a voter, kena a 'looker' in your GRC, you must realise that someone had decided that your fellow voters and/or you are likely to be a 'visual chaser'. =))

Rough breakdown and framework for discussion purposes. 
Please leave your comments accordingly.