Senin, 09 Mei 2011

Why did none of the former govt scholar candidates from the Opposition parties get elected in GE2011?

If you realise, none of the the former government scholars candidates from the Opposition parties got elected as Member of Parliament in GE2011.

My friends (government scholars, public servants etc) have given their 2-cents on the reasons why none of them made it through.

(i) The GRC system
My friend opines that if GE2011 had been based on a 单挑 (SMC), rather than a 群殴 (GRC) system, some of these former scholars could have gotten themselves elected.

(ii) Image & Impression
Another opines that majority of them have an image problem. I will not include the descriptions here, but the gist is that they do not look polished enough, and as such, are not convincing as MPs.

(iii) Singaporeans do not choose MPs based on scholarship status
The ordinary Singaporean doesn't give two hoots about whether someone is a scholar or not (only the PAP seems to care) but whether the potential member of parliament is sincere and honest, and can really care for the residents.

(iv) First-Time Opposition Candidates generally do not get elected in Singapore
An outspoken friend claims that no first time opposition candidates has ever been elected, except for Pritam Singh and Chen Show Mao, who have heavily propped up by 2 very well-established heavyweights, i.e. Low Thia Kiang and Sylvia Lim.

Singaporeans will vote in Opposition only if they are credible and sincere. 'Credible' is defined by ability to speak well with sound policies, while 'sincere' is defined by the willingness to walk the ground for at least 5 years. It took Sylvia Lim 8 years of ground work to be elected.

It's just more tough to be an Opposition candidate.

MY SIMPLE EXPLANATION
I think all 4 friends are right to varying degrees, especially (iv).

However, there are 2 other crucial reasons why these former government scholars have failed to get themselves elected.

Firstly, there is the 'branded party effect'.
Where WP fielded a bunch of relatively unknown figures, they get decent vote margins. These scholars, unfortunately, did not join a branded opposition party such as WP. I have blogged about this earlier.

The second reason has little to do with the scholars, but more to do with the audience.

What these scholars can offer really is their brainy experience. That's their strength. Not something which other candidates who have not worked in the civil service can offer. First-hand insights. These are invaluable.

However, despite their best efforts, I think few people bother to and/or are able to understand what these scholars are trying to say in their well thought through alternative policies. At this point, it's quite 对牛弹琴 to produce such undoubtedly important pieces of work. The general audience is simply not ready for this.

Case in point:
WP, without any of these scholars and alternative policies, had a simple and consistent message to its target audience throughout the entire campaign.

WP: "Do you want an alternative voice in the Parliament?!!"
People: "YES!"
WP: "Vote Workers' Party!"
People: "Workers' Party! Workers' Party! Workers Party!"
WP: "Towards a first world Parliament!"
People: "Workers' Party! Workers' Party! Workers Party!"

It clearly works.

And do not for a moment think it is easy to create a simple yet effective message, or deliver it consistently. WP has been very disciplined in its approach.
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Regardless, I think the Singaporean voter will be more ready for these scholars' contributions in the coming elections. Already, we hear people complaining about GE2011, i.e. not enough debate on national issues and policies.

Perhaps, it is also not merely the job of Opposition MPs and candidates to initiate talk about national issues and policies. Such issues should be discussed all year round by Singaporeans. Elections or not.

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