Predicted GE2011 Outcome - Details

Some have asked me about the details of the predicted outcome of GE2011, as mentioned in my previous entry. So, I've done up a quick summary. The seats, which the opposition parties are likely to win, are highlighted in orange.

In total, PAP should secure about 55% of all votes cast.
The opposition will gain about 10% of all seats.

Do not scoff at this probable result. This is a 4-fold increase of the existing opposition representation in Parliament.

I am generally 'conservative' when it comes to such stuff. But I think if my predictions can be achieved, it is minimally a rational outcome. And the next elections will be even more exciting.

Perhaps... by end of 7 May 2011, Singapore will surprise me, and prove me very wrong.

Meanwhile, I sit on my sofa at home with my arms folded.
No voting for Blinkymummy this time. Tanjong Pagar GRC is a walkover.
And this guy may be our next PM. ROOOAAAARRRR!!!

No.	GRC	Hot Topics	Outcome
1.	Aljunied GRC	· Cost of living · First World Parliament · George Yeo’s responsibility for openly supporting his friend, Jack Neo	Heated. WP Wins. WP (60%) vs PA (40%)
2.	Ang Mo Kio GRC	· Lee Hsien Loong’s responsibility for high costs of living, influx of foreigners etc as Prime Minister of Singapore	Heated. PAP wins. PAP (55%) vs RP (45%)
3.	Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC	· Wong Kan Seng’s responsibility for Mas Selamat escape as Minister of Home Affairs · Chiam See Tong’s physical ability to serve	PAP wins. PAP (60%) vs SPP (40%)
4.	Chua Chu Kang GRC	· Gan Kim Yong’s responsibility for influx of foreign workers and talents as Minister of Manpower	Heated. NSP wins NSP (51%) vs PAP (48%)
5.	East Coast GRC	· Raymond Lim’s responsibility for increased transport costs	PAP wins. PAP (65%) vs WP (35%)
6.	Holland-Bukit Timah GRC	· Vivian Balakrishnan’s responsibility for YOG, public assistance etc as Minister of Community, Youth and Sports · Vincent Wijeysingha’s sexual orientation and ‘hidden’ gay agenda	Heated. PAP (50%) vs SDP (50%)
7.	Jurong GRC	· Tharman Shamugaratnam’s responsibility for high costs of living as Finance Minister	PAP wins. PAP (60%) vs NSP (40%)
8.	Marine Parade GRC	· Tin Pei Ling’s existence · High costs of living · The Nicole Seah effect	PAP wins. PAP (58%) vs NSP (42%)
9.	Moulmein-Kallang GRC	· Unclear	PAP wins. PAP (60%) vs WP (40%)
10.	Nee Soon GRC	· Unclear	PAP wins. PAP (60%) vs WP (40%)
11.	Pasir Ris – Punggol GRC	· Teo Ser Luck’s responsibility for YOG and other sports-related issues · High costs of living	PAP wins. PAP (60%) vs SDA (40%)
12.	Sembawang GRC	· Khaw Boon Wan’s responsibility for healthcare issues	PAP wins. PAP (65%) vs SDP (35%)
13.	Tampines GRC	· Mah Bow Tan’s responsibility for HDB and rising housing costs as Minister of National Development	PAP wins. PAP (60%) vs NSP (40%)
14.	West Coast GRC	· Unclear.	PAP wins. PAP (65%) vs RP (35%)
SUBTOTAL OF OPPOSITION WINS			5 - 14 out of 70 seats

No.	SMC	Hot Topics	Outcome
1.	Bukit Panjang	Alec Tok’s last minute change of party and constituency, and lack of grassroots experience Teo Ho Pin’s handling of CDC staff salaries and bonuses	PAP Wins. PAP (60%) vs SDP (40%)
2.	Hong Kah North	Unclear.	PAP wins. PAP (65%) vs SPP (35%)
3.	Hougang	Desmond Choo’s lack of experience	WP wins. WP (55%) vs PAP (45%)
4.	Joo Chiat	Unclear.	PAP wins. PAP (55%) vs WP (45%)
5.	Mountbatten	Unclear.	PAP wins. PAP (60%) vs NSP (40%)
6.	Pioneer	Steve Chia’s colourful past	PAP wins. PAP (60%) vs NSP (40%)
7.	Potong Pasir	Lina Loh’s ability to carry on her husband’s work	SPP wins. SPP (55%) vs PAP (45%)
8.	Punggol East	Unclear.	PAP wins. PAP (50%) vs SDA (20%) vs WP (30%)
9.	Radin Mas	Unclear.	PAP wins. PAP (60%) vs NSP (40%)
10.	Sengkang West	Cost of living	WP wins. WP (55%) vs PAP (45%)
11.	Whampoa	Unclear	PAP wins. PAP (65%) vs NSP (35%)
12.	Yuhua	Unclear	PAP wins. PAP (60%) vs SDP (40%)
SUBTOTAL OF OPPOSITION WINS			3 out of 12 seats
TOTAL OF OPPOSITION  SEATS  WON			8 (9%) to 17 (20%) out of 87 in Parliament

Regardless of outcome, we must thank all who have been involved in this election, i.e. the candidates, the organisers, the donors etc. Especially those in and supporting the opposition parties, because this takes personal sacrifice.

List of election meeting sites available here (SPF) and here (private).