Who's gonna be the next Prime Minister of Singapore?

We have heard SM Goh raising the suggestion of limiting each minister to 2 terms in office. We have also heard PM Lee's disagreement, citing a lack of talent for such 'frequent' renewal.

The inevitable question to ask is:

"How long for should anyone serve as
Prime Minister?"

Going by Singapore's short history, we have had 3 prime ministers.

Lee Kuan Yew - From 1959 to 1990, (31 years)
Goh Chok Tong - From 1990 to 2004 (14 years)
Lee Hsien Loong - From 2004 to now (7 years to date)

Back when MM Lee stepped down as Prime Minister, he was the world's longest serving Prime Minister.

Also remember, back in 2009, SM Goh announced that "Singapore's fourth Prime Minister could be among the new faces fielded in the next general election due by early 2012, said Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong on Thursday. However, he added that Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong is now having a more difficult time looking for suitable candidates in their 30s.


... The senior minister noted that he became prime minister at the age of 49 and Mr Lee Hsien Loong took over at the age of 51 and he is now 58 years old."

Read here.

I have no problem with an effective leader being in office over long periods. Beats having many lousy leaders passing through the office every few months. But this is not the topic of discussion in this entry.

So, to answer the above questions, we need:

1. To know when is the next PM gonna take over, and
2. To assume that the prime minister's entry age is around 50 years old.

Scenario A: Historical Trend
Going by observation alone, there seems to be an exponential decay in the period of Prime Minister-ship held by our previous PMs. If this holds true, there will be a change in PM this year.

If the change takes places, and (2) is held constant, then our next prime minister is likely to be amongst the younger of current ministers as shown in bright yellow below:

And if you have been paying attention, this is likely to be between #8 and #9.
*gasp*
An ACSian as Prime Minister and in the Core Powers for the first time!

Ever wondered about how these ministers felt when SM Goh made his above-mentioned announcement in 2009?

Scenario B: The Prophecy

If historical trends are misleading, and man has control of the political environment, then the next Prime Minister is likely to be elected by his peers only in another 10 years, i.e. post 2020. PM Lee will continue to serve as Prime Minister of Singapore for another 10 years, completing an at least 17-year term.

In this scenario, the possibilities are widened. The next PM could be the new PAP candidates in their early 40s now such as former military men BG(NS) Tan Chuan Jin, or Major-General Chan Chun Sing.

Or may Tua Peh Gong forbid, Teo Ser Luck becomes our 4th Prime Minister. O_o

Age, like IQ tests, is such an easy proxy.


Scenario C: The Black Swan
No No No... This has nothing to do with Natalie Portman becoming our 4th Prime Minister.

This has everything to do with a situation where something unpredictable and extreme happens. The unknown unknown. We don't know when, how, why... until it kicks you in the teeth.
Like life's sucker punch at us.

Will the 4th Prime Minister be from the same elite school?
Will he be Chinese?
Will he be a she?
Will he be a new citizen?
Will he be tall?
Will he be straight?
Will he be divorced?
Will he be an university graduate? Of NUS?
Will he care about me?